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The English side's opening match in Australia begins on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to score runs, isn't it?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to show up.

A lot of the build-up has centred around the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding batting in Australia, especially against pace bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and robustness of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

In addition to Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Michael Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a reason in Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who famously struck the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for four, has also been recognized as having the game for Australian conditions.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has brought him back, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful gamble, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, spinners have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's record holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against India, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was brought in, meaning Lyon has less space to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have played at 14 times since 1970 and won only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the tourists approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second match, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia played a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

The home side have secured victory in four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new ground has been won by the team setting a target.

The English often overthink day-night matches, when data indicate the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

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